Wave conditions and wind extremes at Mediterranean, Black Sea and Middle Eastern chokepoints: 2026 snapshot and 30-year return levels
Akdeniz, Karadeniz ve Orta Doğu'daki kritik deniz geçitlerinde dalga koşulları ve aşırı rüzgârlar: 2026 anlık görünümü ve 30 yıllık tekerrür düzeyleri
This paper is being revised before resubmission. The journal name and full text will be added after acceptance.
Abstract
Maritime chokepoints and enclosed seas concentrate traffic, so weather conditions there affect safety, schedules and port operations far beyond the local area. Using data retrieved live from the open GOMD platform by a notebook that refuses to substitute missing series, we analysed daily maximum significant wave height (Hs) and its swell and wind-sea components in ten basins and chokepoints over 93 days (17 July–17 October 2026), and 30 years (1996–2025) of NASA MERRA-2 daily maximum 10 m wind at twelve sites. Median daily maximum Hs ranged from 0.20 m at Hormuz to 1.20 m in the Aegean; the highest values were 4.52 m in the Ionian Sea and 4.46 m in the Aegean, which had nine days with Hs of at least 2.5 m. Swell dominated in the Levantine Sea, the Western Mediterranean and the Red Sea (median swell ratio 0.87–0.94), whereas wind sea dominated in the Aegean and the Marmara (0.45–0.48). Within basins, Hs followed the wind-sea component (β = 0.91, R² = 0.86) more closely than swell (β = 1.14, R² = 0.48). Because three months cannot support extreme-value estimates, return levels were computed from 30 annual maxima of reanalysis wind with a Gumbel fit. The 100-year daily maximum wind was 26.1 m/s over the Aegean, 25.6 m/s over the Black Sea, 24.3 m/s at Mersin, 21.8 m/s at the Çanakkale Strait and 17.6 m/s at the Istanbul Strait; the Aegean averaged 2.5 gale days per year. No site showed a significant trend in annual maximum wind (all p > 0.15). Reanalysis at about 50 km resolution underestimates winds channelled through narrow straits, so the return levels are regional screening values, not design values.
Keywords
Significant wave height; Swell; Wind sea; Extreme winds; Gumbel distribution; Return levels; MERRA-2; Maritime chokepoints; Aegean Sea
Open code and data
Loading code…