Shore power is only as clean as the grid: Türkiye's grid carbon intensity versus six Mediterranean and European countries
Kıyı elektriği ancak şebeke kadar temizdir: Türkiye'nin şebeke karbon yoğunluğu ile altı Akdeniz ve Avrupa ülkesinin karşılaştırması
This paper is under review at a peer-reviewed journal. The journal name and full text will be added after acceptance.
Abstract
Onshore power supply (OPS) lets ships switch off their auxiliary engines at berth, but its climate benefit depends on the carbon intensity of the electricity that replaces them. Using data retrieved live from the open GOMD platform by a notebook that stops when a series is missing, we analysed Türkiye's sectoral emissions (JRC EDGAR), electricity generation and grid carbon intensity (Ember) in comparison with Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Egypt, and global shipping emissions, activity and energy use (IEA). Türkiye's greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF rose from 102 Mt CO₂e in 1970 to 580 Mt CO₂e in 2024; power and heat generation contributed 140.9 Mt CO₂ (24.3%) and transport 99.3 Mt (17.1%), with transport's share rising from 10.1% in 1970 and a change point in 2012. Wind and solar generation grew from 2.9 TWh in 2010 to 76.7 TWh in 2025, and low-carbon sources supplied 43.3% of electricity, yet grid carbon intensity fell only from 505 to 475 gCO₂/kWh between 2015 and 2025, compared with 604 to 315 in Greece and 328 to 154 in Spain. Across the seven countries, a one-point increase in the low-carbon share was associated with about 2.6% lower power-sector CO₂ (t = −13.9, within R² = 0.45, N = 245). Relative to an auxiliary engine burning marine gas oil at an assumed 220 g/kWh (about 705 gCO₂/kWh), OPS at 2025 grid intensities would cut direct at-berth CO₂ by 94% in France, 78% in Spain, 60% in Italy, 55% in Greece, 53% in Germany, 33% in Türkiye and 20% in Egypt. Globally, shipping CO₂ rose from 0.810 to 0.847 Gt between 2015 and 2024 while CO₂ per tonne-km fell by 18% and CO₂ per unit of energy stayed at 75 g/MJ. We discuss what these numbers imply for port investment under the EU's FuelEU Maritime and AFIR regulations.
Keywords
Onshore power supply; Cold ironing; Grid carbon intensity; Energy transition; Sectoral emissions; Shipping decarbonisation; FuelEU Maritime; Türkiye
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