Load factor and coincidence factor for ports: measuring capacity utilisation without infrastructure data, a random-arrival test and the pooling potential of Türkiye's port system, 2019–2025
Limanlar için yük faktörü ve eşzamanlılık faktörü: altyapı verisi olmadan kapasite kullanımının ölçülmesi, rastgele varış sınaması ve Türkiye liman sisteminde havuzlama potansiyeli, 2019–2025
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Abstract
Port efficiency studies rely on infrastructure inputs such as quay length, number of cranes and area; in most countries these data are not openly and comparably available. This study transfers two concepts established in electric power systems, the load factor and the coincidence factor, to ports and computes them solely from daily throughput estimates derived from ship tracking data. To separate how much of the load factor is due to scale, a benchmark model based on unconstrained random ship arrivals is built. The method is applied to Türkiye's 38 ports and to the ports of seventeen Mediterranean and Black Sea countries for 2019–2025. The random-arrival model explains 77% of the variation in port load factors; the high load factors of large ports are largely a statistical consequence of the number of ships. In 82% of port-year observations, observed throughput is more volatile than random arrivals would imply, and there is no trace of a capacity ceiling at weekly resolution. Once scale is controlled for, the load factors of Türkiye's ports do not differ from those of the comparison ports. Port peaks are mutually independent: the coincidence factor is 0.72 and equals its expected value under independence; the sum of individual port peaks exceeds the system's coincident peak by 28%. After the earthquake of 6 February 2023, İskenderun's throughput fell to 20% of its pre-earthquake level for four weeks and was still at 73% of that level in 2025; no measurable shift of cargo to neighbouring ports was observed. The findings indicate that in port planning the pooling and substitution capability of the system matters more than the capacity of individual ports.
Keywords
Port capacity utilisation; Load factor; Coincidence factor; Ship arrival process; AIS data; Port resilience; Türkiye
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