Club convergence in the carbon intensity of electricity: Evidence from 191 countries, 2000–2024
Elektriğin karbon yoğunluğunda kulüp yakınsaması: 191 ülkeden kanıt, 2000–2024
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Abstract
The emission savings from electrifying transport, heating and industry depend on the carbon intensity of the electricity that replaces fossil fuels. This paper asks whether national power systems are converging towards low carbon intensity or forming persistent clubs. Applying the Phillips–Sul log t test and club clustering algorithm to the carbon intensity of electricity generation in 191 countries over 2000–2024, I reject convergence of the full panel (t = −52.9) and identify three convergence clubs. A low-carbon club of 19 hydro-, nuclear- and geothermal-based systems fell from a mean of 105 to 43 gCO₂/kWh; a transition club of 31 countries, mostly European and Latin American, fell from 290 to 155 gCO₂/kWh; and a high-carbon club of 141 countries, including China, India, the United States, Germany, Japan and Türkiye, declined by only 8% to 531 gCO₂/kWh. Eleven countries that started below 200 gCO₂/kWh joined the high-carbon club by adding fossil capacity. The partition is robust to the filtering parameter, the truncation fraction, the merging rule and the exclusion of small economies. An ordered logit shows that club membership is predicted by initial hydro and nuclear shares and income, but not by the initial coal share once non-fossil shares are controlled for. Replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump cuts CO₂ by a median of 95% and 79% in the low-carbon and transition clubs but only 18% in the high-carbon club, which illustrates how club membership conditions the payoff of electrification policies.
Keywords
Club convergence; Carbon intensity of electricity; Phillips–Sul test; Energy transition; Electrification; Ordered logit
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