Which shocks bite? Source-market loss, extreme heat and the resilience of European tourism demand, 2015–2026
Hangi şoklar etkili? Kaynak pazar kaybı, aşırı sıcaklar ve Avrupa turizm talebinin dayanıklılığı, 2015–2026
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Abstract
This study compares two shocks to European tourism demand: the loss of Russian visitors after February 2022 and extreme summer heat. Using monthly nights spent in 30 countries to August 2026, origin-specific annual data and daily temperatures at 80 destination points, it combines continuous-exposure difference-in-differences with wild cluster bootstrap inference, synthetic difference-in-differences for the most exposed destinations and an accounting decomposition. Russian nights in the EU fell by 85% and did not recover, yet destinations recovered unevenly: other markets replaced the lost demand in Cyprus, Finland and Lithuania by 2025, whereas Latvia and Estonia remained 23–36% below their synthetic counterparts. Ten additional days above 32 °C in a month had no detectable effect on nights spent. Diversion to Türkiye and Serbia shows that the source market was redirected rather than lost. Source-market concentration, not heat, was the binding vulnerability.
Keywords
Tourism demand; Destination resilience; Source markets; Geopolitical shocks; Extreme heat; Synthetic difference-in-differences; Europe
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