Weather and daily port activity: Evidence from 434 ports, 2019–2026
Hava durumu ve günlük liman faaliyeti: 434 limandan kanıt, 2019–2026
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Abstract
Ports are exposed to wind, heavy rain and heat, but the size and persistence of weather-related losses in port activity are rarely measured at scale. This study combines daily port calls and cargo volumes estimated from vessel tracking data for 434 ports from January 2019 to October 2026 with daily weather at each port. Poisson models with port-by-month, date and port-by-weekday fixed effects identify the effects of weather from day-to-day variation within ports. Port calls fell by 35% on days with maximum winds of at least 14 m/s and by 18% on days with at least 50 mm of precipitation; cargo volumes fell more. Extreme heat did not reduce activity. Activity dropped already on the day before strong winds and recovered only partly afterwards: over the window from two days before to ten days after a strong-wind day, the cumulative effect was as large as the same-day effect, so the lost calls were not made up within ten days. Dry bulk carriers were the most and roll-on/roll-off ships the least sensitive. Ports that rarely experience strong winds lost about twice as much activity per windy day as ports where such days are common, which points to adaptation. Strong winds and heavy rain removed 0.66% and 0.16% of port calls in the sample, with up to 5% at exposed ports in North-Western Europe and East Asia. Weather risk to ports is concentrated, persistent and partly adaptable, which matters for adaptation planning and for the emissions of ships waiting at anchor.
Keywords
Ports; Extreme weather; Climate adaptation; AIS data; Port calls; Poisson regression; Empirical Bayes
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