GOMD Evidence → ActionProject spaceForumAI Lab
PIPELINE CASE / 01

Why do catch and fleet diverge?

From Türkiye’s fisheries data to a research project and a regulatory proposal: FISH-EVIDENCE.

Real data and calculations · fictional stakeholder scenario. Analizler 7 Eylül 2026 tarihli GOMD veri kopyasındaki kaynak serilerinden çalıştırıldı. Forum konuşmaları tanıtım için yazılmıştır; gerçek kişilerin, şirketlerin veya kamu kurumlarının katılımı, görüşü, onayı ya da taahhüdü değildir. Önerilen pilot henüz uygulanmadı.

The chart did not give an answer.
It produced a better question.

It is striking that fleet indicators stay above their starting values while the catch declines. But the period breaks and the failed forecast models do not support a simple “capacity went up, yield went down” story. The lack of operational effort and cost records is the starting point of the research.

Review the findings →
5Source time series7Analysis: 5 sources + 2 derived ratios17scenario messages replying to one another

From data to decision, every step has its evidence

01 · Data selection

Catch, fleet GT, number of vessels, employment and natural capital. All five for Türkiye; common comparison window 1995–2020.

02 · Testing

Trend, robust slope, rank test, stationarity, sub-periods and a hold-out check on the last six years. The failed model is shown too.

03 · Challenge and negotiation

Science, cooperative, industry, finance, law, investor and public-sector roles challenge the assumptions.

04 · Project decision

A research pilot with trip/effort data in a single cooperative; the points where it is not ready are recorded.

05 · Public output

A shared data standard, access protocol, impact assessment and a reasoned guidance proposal.

06 · Application route

TÜBİTAK 1001 research logic; budget preparation based on work packages. The productisation route is conditional.

Sources and review trail

Sayısal veri: GOMD kopyası, 7 Eylül 2026; sağlayıcı alınma kayıtları 31 Ağustos 2026. Program ve yöntem bağlantıları 9 Eylül 2026 tarihinde incelendi. Bu arşiv sabit veri sürümünü gösterir; güncel seriler ayrıca kontrol edilmelidir.